Thursday, October 8, 2009
In other words, can the government afford health care reform? The latest score says yes. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the Baucus bill in the Senate will cover 29 million people that are currently uninsured and reduce the deficit by $89 billion dollars.
Republicans insisted that the CBO scored the plan because they were dubious of the plan's finances. Now rebuffed, expect Senate Republicans to find new complaints about the bill. Their bottom line is they don't want any bill - even one that reduces the deficit. Senate Republicans don't want a legacy of change, they only want to see Obama fail.
Not all Republicans though. The White House has received support from some Republicans but they're not Southern and they're generally out of office. In other words, elected Republicans (outside of Maine's Olympia Snowe) can't escape the conservative thought police that forbid true bipartisanship. Outside Republicans can speak to the truth, they can speak of the real need for reforming the system now.
For a steady dose of health care reform updates, go here.
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As I frequently allude to, I'm less sanguine about Republican hopes for a 2010 congressional majority takeover than others. Of course, that's more than a year away and much can happen between now and then. Still, there are many similarities to 2010 and 1994, but as this article in the WSJ makes clear, Democrats are more prepared in 2010 than they were in 1994. Associated Content mimics the theme.
However, there are some black Republicans that feel positive they can win in 2010. Texas Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams (that's a big job in Texas) is a more-sane Alan Keyes leads the pack of black conservatives seeking statewide office. He won't win, but the GOP counts on their small of minorities to help counter the legitimate claims that the GOP is an all-white party. It's not an all-white party, but it can look that way.
In other news, it doesn't help when Republican surrogates mock Democrats who stutter.
I'll return to this subject over the coming months.
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Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Believing they can win the public relations battle purely on merit, America's leading civil rights groups have been reluctant to inject race into the ongoing health care debate. But, they could. Minorities would disproportionately benefit as I've written about before. And, they are. Civil rights groups have launched a media blitz.
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The Supremes are getting down to business. Here's a short version. For a full version of all the different issues the court will look at this term, visit Nina Totenberg and again here. Her coverage is the most even-handed and detailed.
The case that most interests me regards the legality of states to pass restrictive gun ordinances. The nation's mayors are unequivocal in their support for restrictive gun ordinances. Their hope is that Obama and Congress will pass a broad-based gun ban to get around the strong likelihood that the conservative Supreme Court will rule there is a constitutional right to gun ownership so strong that states cannot prohibit where gun owners take their guns. To be sure, the mayor's request focuses in keeping guns away from criminals. Admirable as that is, I'm no Pollyanna. Criminals will find a way to get guns, much like middle-class suburban kids get drugs. Where there's a demand for a product, there's a market.
Still, allowing people to carry the gun anywhere and everywhere does not make me feel safer. I've met my fellow man and I don't like the idea of 99.9% of them having access to a gun, I don't care what their intentions are. Not that I would forbid gun ownership. But, I do believe the state can and should restrict where guns can be brought. Much like the state regulates the use alcohol, drugs, and standards for doctors and lawyers.
For what it's worth, polling shows broad public opposition against concealed weapon permits. Strikingly, security practitioners don't like concealed weapons either.
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Tuesday, October 6, 2009
Immigration is flat. A bad economy will do that for you. A forecast of bleak job creation soured the Dow last week. But, heck, that was last week. Now, it just depends on where you're willing to work. Turns out the service sector of the economy is on the rebound. What to make of the conflicting stats? Don't follow the day-to-day economic reports. Look for trends. Such as...
Not all states are hit equally hard by this recession. Check out this map of the recession.
Women make less than men (map). It's not news. Skeptics always claim that it's because the work women do is less valuable than men. You know who says that? Men. The problem with the skeptics is they can't concede that in reality the work women do is just as valuable, but society has a sexist bent in assigning value to their work.
Finally, if you believe in evolution, meet your oldest relative.
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Paul Krugman calls it The Politics of Spite. What's that, you say? Good question.
Republicans and conservatives openly cheered when Chicago was denied the right to host the Olympics. There are certainly eloquent, logical reasons to not want to host the Olympics. But, that's not why these conservatives cheered. It was outright hostility to Obama and they want to see him defeated.
Ironically,
George W. Bush supported Chicago's Olympic bid. I seriously doubt conservatives would be caught cheering Chicago's loss has John McCain been elected president. Weired, huh? Not too often that
Democrats revel in being more patriotic than Republicans.
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Where does the Republican Party stand in 2009? Don't get me started on black Republicans. I certainly appreciate independent thought; thus, people have the right to be wrong. For instance, Angela McGlowan, an Ole Miss grad, is one of Fox News's darlings. She can be counted on toe the party line on conservative movements du jour such as ACRORN. Yet, for the most part, her beliefs are sensibly grounded in conservatism, a theory I respect, but do not admire. Needless to say, my views are on black conservatives range from mystifying disbelief to disappointment. I'll return to this topic another day.
McGlowan can reasonably be separated in vindictiveness and thought from the likes of Glen Beck, whom even Republican-conservative stalwart senator Lindsay Graham has taken to task for his over-the-top comments.
Other Republicans simply jumped the shark. A notable example occurred in 2002 when Georgia senator Max Cleland, a triple-amputee from injuries sustained fighting in Vietnam was caricatured as unpatriotic by George Bush, Karl Rove and Saxby Chambliss. Cleland has now written a book about his life in politics. I can't wait to read it.
Despite the pathetic examples of Glen Beck and Saxby Chambliss, many observers anticipate a Republican comeback in 2010. The logic? A surge in partisan identification for Republicans. Predictably (it happens with all presidential party's when the presidential honeymoon ends), some independents are put off by Obama's agenda and they make the knee-jerk reaction to "identify" with the opposition party.
Listen to me people. These month-by-month shifts are meaningless. Long-term identification does not drastically change quickly. It can't. Long-term trends show Democrats doing well because people under the age of 35 are dramatically more Democratic than Republican. Minorities are more Democratic than Republican. Those groups (youth + minorities) are growing demonstrably faster than the older, southern, whiter Republican Party.
Of course, it's all relative. History tells us the GOP needs a huge surge for 2010 success along the lines of 1994. I'm betting against it.
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Monday, October 5, 2009
Sharon Robinson, daughter of famed baseballer Jackie Robinson, writes about her dad in a children's book titled "Testing The Ice." The story may not be what you're thinking either. Check it out.
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So take a million dollars and multiply it times a thousand. That's how much Tiger Woods has earned in his career from endorsement deals and golf winnings. He's not even forty yet. Odds are he'll earn another billion before it's all over.
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This is the choice of the Washington Nats. They are a big market team with big market revenue but behave the way small market teams do. Now, Major League Baseball utilizes a revenue structure that calls for rich, big market winning teams to subsidize small market teams losing teams. Well, the way it works in reality is that these big market teams will end up subsidizing the very rich Lerner family that operate the Nats operation.
Analysis
Look for a shake-up in how baseball manages this self-induced socialism. The Nats appear to be the classic case of a free-rider. And, as a baseball fan, I'd love to see more teams required to spend more on payroll in order to spread the elite players around. Otherwise, they all end up with the Yankees, and that gets boring.
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By now you surely know, the International Olympic Committee passed on Chicago to host the 2016 Olympics. Instead, South America will host the games for the first time in Rio de Janeiro. Kudos to the them.
Certainly, Chicago has problems with violence, but so too does Rio.
While some were shocked that Rio threw Chicago for a loop, really we should not be. As Devona Walker makes clear, the U.S. has hosted the Olympics more than any other country (2002 - Salt Lake City; 1996 - Atlanta; 1985 - Los Angeles; 1980 - Lake Placid, NY).
Importantly, this was not a referendum on Obama as Sean Hannity posed. The heads of state of Brazil, the USA, Spain, and Japan were all in attendance. I really doubt most Spaniards believe the world collectively rejected Prime Minister Zapatero because Madrid did not get the games. More likely, Madrid is being penalized because London hosts the 2012 games and the IOC did not want to go to Europe for back-to-back Olympics.
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Thursday, October 8, 2009