As an aside, did you know that Pawlenty is leaving office? He announced he won't run, but is finishing out his term, unlike Alaska's Sarah Palin. The odds are pretty good that he'll run for president and I expect people will respect him a lot more than Palin.
In other related resignation news, the news that Illinois Senator Roland Burris won't seek reelection is not news. He had said all along that he would be a fill-in. That he hasn't raised huge sums of money for a reelection bid isn't a sign he can't raise money, but an indication he never tried.
Vibe Magazine is no more. Call me harsh, but can't say I miss it. That's because I never read it. Always sad to see folks lose their jobs, but the closing of Vibe represents two distinct phenomena.
First, we're in a severe recession and advertising revenue always declines during recessions. It's an easy for companies to save a few bucks. But, for media outlets (i.e. the troubled newspaper industry is the prime example of this), losing advertising revenue is a death-knell and this is what happened to Vibe.
One thing the American voter taught us in 2008 is that they don't want an intensely partisan, polarizing figure as president. After her actions last week, it is clear that nearly former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin (R) if remains polarizing to Alaskans, there's no way she can be a unifying force for the national electorate. It might not help that she thinks there is a federal Department of Law.
Obama has sent plans to Congress on creating a consumer protection agency. Presumably, Congress should do this, but has repeatedly shown it to be an incapable body for that purpose.
Jim Quinn of XM Channel 158 has managed to ruffle more than a few feathers with some obnoxious comments. Read more about him here. Classy. Damn that liberal media. FYI: That's some sarcasm for you.
But, chronic problems (i.e. wildfires, earthquakes, recessions. battles with labor unions) and a very high cost of living are huge drawbacks to the allure of the state. To quote from a recent Forbes article on business climate...
"Bringing up the rear of our rankings are the troubled spots in California. The Golden State had its worst showing ever in our tally. It is home to six of the seven lowest-rated spots, and Riverside was the only one of its 21 metro areas (among the country's 200 biggest) that cracked the top 100. Most California metros are burdened with sky-high living and business costs, and the job outlook is week. The unemployment rate in 199th-ranked Merced, Calif., is expected to hit 21% in 2010."
If you read the above link in full you'll read that Forbes can't drool enough over the business climate in Texas. Yet, Texas has many of its own problems too, so a good business climate cannot lead to a de facto claim of superiority. For instance, it's embarrassing the focus in Texas schools is on creationism and not science.
Meanwhile, California's system of higher education is the envy of nearly state - and ultimately this is what drives innovation. Remember, California didn't become expensive by accident, its cost-of-living is so high because 1 in 8 Americans are drawn to the state by its good climate and lots and lots of jobs.
California will recover from this recession. The only question is when.
Analysis Remains to be seen if this high level of party support will continue, but Harry Reid must be pleased. I would expect, on critical votes, for Specter to continue exhibiting his independent streak, but on important but not terribly public votes for Specter to toe the party line. At least through the 2010 Democratic primary.
Essentially, Obama has threatened to make life worse for the health care bureaucracy unless they come to the bargaining table. The goal is to squeeze savings wherever possible to pay for expanding health care to every American. The total cost of such a plan could exceed $1 trillion and these small steps (really these steps are quite major) will help pave a smoother road for congressional negotiators. Politically, this will make it harder for Republicans to resist reform efforts on the grounds that it is anti-medical industry. Getting the drug industry and the hospitals on board are two of the major constituents in this debate. Who knows if reform will actually happen, but these are positive steps.
This style of governing by negotiating with major constituent groups is actually quite common in other groups. It's known as consociationalism.
Analysis I'll admit to texting and driving and reading texts while driving. I know I shouldn't it. Sometimes I rationalize that it's no different than changing the radio station or fiddling with my IPod. Still, that doesn't make it right. Yet, should we pass laws to ban these practices? At the same time, can we honestly expect people - especially new, young drivers - to do the right thing, if we all don't the right thing?
With 257 votes in the House, the Democratic Party can lose up to 39 votes and still prevail. Of course, they'd rather not lose 39 votes, but the point is they can. Besides being able to claim a mandate due to the 2006 and 2008 elections where the Party won big, a huge majority also allows the Democratic leadership to be more patient, tolerant and forgiving of members that vote against the party line. This story from CQ Politics discusses these apostate members (the GOP has their fair share too).
But, it's more than just the current large majority that allows the Democratic leadership to be more tolerant. An examination of party unity scores (how often a member votes with his party) going back to WWII will demonstrate that Democrats are more likely to buck their party than Republicans will buck their party. Why? The very nature of modern, American liberalism is that it is a political ideology fonded on openness, inclusiveness and tolerance. To be progressive is to be inclusive of that which is different. Yet, the nature of modern conservatism is to reject that what is different in pursuit of constraining dissent and vigorous debate. To be a House Democrat is to tolerate the different, to be a House Republican is to reject it.
Analysis What would be better would be comprehensive immigration reform. The Bush administration wasted prime years in neglecting the issue. Congress, then and now, is torn between hard-core anti-immigrant bashers, liberals who don't want to send anyone home, pragmatists who recognize the benefits - cultural and educational that immigration adds to America's cultural milieu, and corporate interests that love cheap immigrant labor.
Compromise will be ugly and unsatisfying, but no resolution equals congressional negligence.
Here's a story about volunteers in the (abysmal) DC school system. We need volunteers because too many students enter school lacking the requisite skills to make adequate progress. We need volunteers because too many students forget over the summer what they learned the previous school year. Finally, we need volunteers because too many parents (in places like DC) don't spend the time with their kids preparing them for school, teaching them the norms and expectations of society. Teachers are overwhelmed and overworked, so we need volunteers to fill in the gaps. Thank goodness they're available, but it's a shame we need them.
Nearly six months into his first year in office, President Obama enjoys near-record support from Congress. On positions in which Obama has taken a clear position, he has won 95% of the time. At this rate it would be a record, not just for a presidency in its first year (when congressional support is typically higher), but for any president in any year since 1953.
Analysis Even more impressive is his support from Senate Republicans at 56% is incredible. House GOP'ers support Obama just 36%, even less than they supported Clinton, but there's a reason for that. House Republicans, their ranks thinned by humiliating losses in 2006 and 2008 are an even more conservative lot. The House Republicans that are left represent districts that are much more conservative than the national average. Senate Republicans, who just witnessed the Obama tsunami roll through in 2008 are wary of being seen as too obstructionist.
Simply put, Obama might be more shrewd than other presidents (which is really saying something, especially since I watched Frost/Nixon last night). Meaning, Obama does a better job of strategically announcing his position on critical House & Senate votes. That probably explains some of his success rate, but not all of it. In reality, super-large majorities in House and Senate make the likelihood of passage for Obama's legislative priorities high. In this climate, it behooves Democrats and moderate Republicans to ride the Obama gravy train.
When I was a student in Austin in the nineties, I discovered (not literally, of course), Shiner Bock. Since then, with the exception of a few real people, it has become my best friend. Here's a story about how the Spoetzl Brewery thrives.
Republican economist Greg Mankiw says it hasn't. While a follow of Keynes, Mankiw served fro 3 years as an economic advisor to President Bush. His chart suggests that the stimulus dollars have done little to stem the heavy tide of unemployment.
Analysis To be sure, (these) facts don't lie. But, the trick is to make sure we're using the right set of facts. The Obama administration is certainly guilty of optimistic assumptions and rosy scenarios, but what we don't know (and neither does Mankiw) is what the true baseline for economic misery was when Obama took office. Time will tell, but for now we're just guesstimating.
By now you know that Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, John McCain's 2008 running mate, will resign at the end of July. Commentators rightfully suggest that Palin is proving once again that she only plays by her rules. But, is that a good thing? I'd say no.
By objective accounts, her effect on McCain's campaign, while entertaining, was ultimately negative to the extreme. With impeccable timing, Vanity Fair's Todd Purdum recently wrote a long article on the the highs and many lows that including Palin brought to the McCain campaign. While she certainly has an outsized core of fervent followers, that translated into little actual help on Election Night.
In the end, Palin's announcement demonstrates how erratic she is. Alaskans elected her to a simple four year term. She spent the better part of last fall campaigning with McCain. Just eight months later, she quits on Alaska. She might have larger political ambitions, but she still has not demonstrated she has the experience or the gravitas necessary for greater political responsibility. Getting in silly dust-ups with David Letterman does not a leader make. More importantly, Palin has not demonstrated leadership in domestic or foreign policy (true, she does know where Russia is). The sooner Palin recedes from the public agenda, the better.
When times were flush and Americans were refinancing their homes left and right, no one was bothered by high property tax bills. I mean, if your home increases in value 5-10% every year, you're not worried because you know when you sell the home you'll recoup thousands in profit to offset the amount paid in taxes.
Now, in a recession, everyone wants their property tax bill lowered. It makes sense. Home take longer to sell, they sell for less...homes should be valued for less. But, people forget about the lag. County governments only have the capacity to assess property once a year; your tax bill doesn't fluctuate monthly with the housing market and we wouldn't want it that way. We need stability, we just don't like it when it works against us.
Plus, there's the problem for local governments, which rely on property tax revenue to pay for schools, community colleges, hospitals and infrastructure projects. Despite the shortfall in revenue, you'll find few Americans that want local government to cut back on those expenses. We want it both ways and that's a bad attitude.
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Saturday, July 11, 2009
