King Politics

This election cycle, much discussion centered around the vaunted youth vote (18-29). Yes, it did materialize. By all accounts, turnout out by this normally apathetic group increased.*

Where did Obama win the youth vote? Where did he lose it? Finally, are there evident trends with this youth vote?



Click on map for a larger view.

First, Obama cleaned up among youth in New England, the mid-Atlantic and the Midwest. Data is not available for the Pacific Northwest but it's no stretch to assume Obama earned at least 60% of the youth vote in Washington State and Oregon too.

In many states that Obama lost, he still won the youth vote (i.e. the Plains states of Kansas, Nebraska and the Dakotas).

There is simply no hope of a Democrat winning Utah, Wyoming, Alaska, Idaho or Oklahoma anytime soon. Resistance to the Donkey is too deeply ingrained in the local political cultures there.

Analysis
Going forward, the GOP will remain competitive in the South and the Plains states because there is not an ingrained Democratic establishment in those states. In other words, the GOP can still recapture these voters, but it must do so soon before young voters start identifying as Democrats, which is a deeper commitment than merely voting for a party.

If I were a Republican strategist I'd focus on suburban voters in big states and work inwards to the urban center. You already do well in rural areas, start listening to people in the cities and stop demonizing those that live there. After all, where are most flocking to? The cities and the jobs therein.

*Yes, this group is apathetic. Don't confuse voting with caring. I see it every day.

Labels: Democratic Party, GOP, Maps, Voting